Data and replication package for "EU Unwrought Aluminium Imports around the 2026 CBAM Transition: A December Spike and Subsequent Reversal"
Description
Frozen source data, source manifests, legal inputs, code, generated outputs, and audit artefacts for the accompanying study of the December 2025 spike in EU imports of unwrought aluminium under Combined Nomenclature heading 7601, around the start of the definitive EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism regime on 1 January 2026. The package reproduces the focused descriptive analysis through May 2026, the origin-matched EU-US-UK destination comparison on the imports-for-consumption basis, the Stage 1 discovery-screen provenance, the origin-scope and materiality-threshold diagnostics, the official transitional-default audit, and the market-context records, including the archived pre-December EEX EUA futures reference. A single command regenerates every panel, estimate, figure, and table from the raw archived sources under a pinned Python 3.14 environment whose exact dependencies ship with the package; the pipeline verifies the SHA-256 hash of every input before use. The two Comext archives are frozen API vintages. Eurostat does not preserve historical vintages, so a later live query would not reproduce them; they are therefore essential to the deposit rather than a convenience. The official annual Combined Nomenclature distributions are deliberately not included: they are stable published classification releases, and replication/download_cn_annual.py inside the replication package re-fetches them on demand. RIGHTS: this deposit combines materials governed by different source terms and NO BLANKET LICENCE APPLIES. Original code is MIT-licensed (LICENSE_CODE.txt inside focused_replication_package.zip). Eurostat and European Commission material is reused under the Eurostat copyright and reuse notice; US and UK destination records remain subject to their own source terms; the archived European Energy Exchange notice and South32 company announcement remain subject to their publishers' copyright. See RIGHTS.md in this deposit, which governs. Byte counts and SHA-256 hashes for every deposited file are in deposit_manifest.csv.
Files
Steps to reproduce
1. Download all files and verify them against deposit_manifest.csv (SHA-256). 2. Unpack focused_replication_package.zip and supporting_inputs.zip. 3. Create the environment from replication/environment.yml (Python 3.14, pinned dependencies). 4. Place the two cbam_comext_complete_*.csv.gz archives in a directory of your choice and pass it as the raw-data directory. 5. Run the single-command pipeline in replication/ (see replication/README.md). It verifies the SHA-256 hash of every input before use, fails on duplicate or mismatched composite keys, and writes all tables, figures, and results. 6. Compare the regenerated outputs with those shipped in the package; the release manifest lists byte counts and hashes for every file.
Institutions
- Prague University of Economics and BusinessPrague, Prague