Philippine Pork Supply and Demand
Description
The pig quarterly production, pig farm prices, pork retail prices, population, and Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) are all available from the website of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Meanwhile, the National Meat Inspection Service (NMIS) was the source of pork cold storage beginning and ending inventories. And lastly, the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) is the repository of pork importation data starting from 2010 Quarter 1 to 2024 Quarter 3. SUPPLY is obtained by adding NMIS’ frozen pork cold storage beginning inventory (available under the Report’s section of the NMIS website), PSA’s pork production (available on the OpenStat of PSA and converted to 70% carcass weight), and BAI pork imports (available from the BAI website). This is enhanced by the variables YCWHOLESALE (yellow corn wholesale price), PFARM (pig farm gate price), and Q4 (the seasonal quarter dummy for the Christmas holidays). Q4 dummy was created to recognize that pork producers are always gearing to increase production in time for quarter 4 of each year when Filipino consumers have extra money to buy pork to celebrate the Christmas holidays. All other quarters are zero. For YCWHOLESALE (since it is a major component of feeds), pig production (a component of SUPPLY) decreases whenever there is an increase in YCWHOLESALE. For PFARM, there is an increase in pig production whenever there is an increase in the price. On the demand side, DEMAND is defined as SUPPLY minus NMIS frozen pork ending inventory. This is enhanced by POPULATION (Philippine human population), HFCE (Household Final Consumption Expenditure), and PRETAIL (Philippine retail price for pork belly). For POPULATION, there is an increase in DEMAND whenever there is an increase in the POPULATION. HFCE, an indicator so household spending, there is a direct relationship. For PRETAIL, the relationship is inverse such that whenever there is an increase in pork retail price, the consumers will cut back on consumption. POPULATION, HFCE, and PRETAIL are all publicly available from the website of PSA.
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Institutions
- Massey UniversityManawatu-Wanganui, Palmerston North