Colorado SEIR Measles School Outbreak Model R Code
Description
Our model incorporates publicly available Colorado school immunization rates into a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to predict potential for measles outbreaks at Colorado schools. Our model found that private schools, childcare/preschool facilities, and schools in the Southwestern region of Colorado are at higher risk for proportionally large measles outbreaks. Despite regional trends, the model uncovered the potential for large outbreaks across the entire state, even in relatively well vaccinated regions, that are obscured by regional/county vaccination rates alone. The model also allows for comparison of different mitigation strategies to individualize approach to each school. Description of the SEIR R Code and data analysis is found in the files below.
Files
Institutions
- University of Colorado Anschutz Medical CampusColorado, Aurora