Research data and methods) Powering the Critical-Minerals Boom: An Energy Strategy for Least-Cost Captive Supply, Grid Integration and Decarbonisation of Mining in Kenya and Malawi
Description
This dataset contains the data supporting a study of least-cost and low-carbon electricity supply for twelve mining and petroleum developments in Kenya and Malawi. The developments are oil, rare earths, gold, rutile–graphite, niobium–tantalum, uranium, ilmenite, fluorspar and coal projects with peak demand of 2–60 MW. The study compares five supply configurations at each site: diesel only; captive solar PV–battery–diesel hybrids; grid extension; grid with on-site solar PV; and grid with on-site solar PV and battery storage. Associated gas is an additional option at South Lokichar. The comparison uses an hourly techno-economic model and a 5,000-draw Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, and the results are aggregated into four national energy-strategy pathways to 2032. The Excel workbook contains 1. README: an index of all sheets with sources. 2. Tables 1–23: every table in the manuscript. These cover: a -the review of literature and national strategies; b -mineral resources and power-system indicators; c - development cases and demand; d - cost assumptions, grid-connection calibration and supply designs; e - levelised costs, emissions, savings and electricity cost per unit of product; f - network connections, sensitivity and Monte Carlo results; g - financing instruments, regulatory instruments, strategic pathways and SDG 7 contributions. 3. Tables A1–A2: resource occurrence registers for Kenya and Malawi. 4. Tables B1–B12: profiles of the twelve developments. 5. Source data for Figs 4, 5, 7–14 and 16: installed capacity; peak demand; LCOE by site and option; LCOE cost components; cost and carbon per unit of product; national adequacy; hourly dispatch profiles; break-even spur lengths; grid-availability sweep; Monte Carlo probabilities; and strategic pathway indicators. 6. Model inputs: site data (energy, peak load, grid node, route length, voltage, PV capacity factor, annual output) and 35 techno-economic parameters with tested ranges. All costs are in 2026 US dollars (real) at a 10% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Related publication Ochieng, F.X. Powering the Critical-Minerals Boom: An Energy Strategy for Least-Cost Captive Supply, Grid Integration and Decarbonisation of Mining in Kenya and Malawi. Energy Strategy Reviews (submitted, 2026).
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Steps to reproduce
Methods / steps to reproduce 1. Electricity demand was estimated from throughput and energy-intensity benchmarks. 2. Hourly PV output was synthesised and scaled to each site's capacity factor. Each supply option was simulated hour by hour, with PV, battery, grid and diesel dispatched in merit order. 3. Levelised costs were calculated using capital recovery factors. 4. Spur-line costs were calibrated to recently built Malawian mine lines. 5. Joint uncertainty in seven parameters was propagated by Monte Carlo sampling. 6. The model code and full input files are available in the companion MineGrid-LCOE dataset 7. Python code was developed and used (MineGrid-LCOE_dataset_v1.zip)
Institutions
- Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobi County, Nairobi