Ukraine's Balance of Payments: Macroeconomic External Shock Resilience Panel (Headline, Analytical Presentation), 2015Q1-2026Q1
Description
This dataset provides a quarterly, long-format panel of Ukraine's headline Balance of Payments (BOP), analytical presentation, per the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), covering 2015Q1 through 2026Q1 (45 quarters). It includes the Current Account (goods and services balance, primary income, secondary income), the Capital Account, and the summary net lending/borrowing position, at an aggregated ("headline") level of items. The dataset is designed as a compact, ready-to-use basis for macroeconometric analysis (e.g. VAR models, structural break tests) of Ukraine's external position through three major shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the full-scale invasion (2022 onward), and the shift in external financing structure (2024-2026). IMPORTANT SCOPE NOTE: this dataset contains quarterly FLOWS (transactions during the quarter), not stock/level data. In particular, it does NOT include the level of Ukraine's international reserves; it covers only the current, capital, and net lending/borrowing balances at the headline level. For reserve levels (stocks), see the author's companion "Monetary Statistics" dataset in this series (based on NBU table 3.1.9). For the detailed Financial Account (including reserve asset transactions) and detailed goods/services/income breakdowns, see the author's companion datasets "Financial Account - Full Detail by Sector and Instrument" and "Current & Capital Account - Full Detail" in this same source series. METHODOLOGY & SOURCES Figures are taken directly from the National Bank of Ukraine's official Balance of Payments publication (analytical presentation table) and are not estimated or interpolated. The hierarchical source table has been converted to tidy long-format data, preserving each item's original row position and nesting depth via item_path. Two source-documented caveats apply throughout this series (see also the companion detailed datasets): 1. Since 2014, all data exclude the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. 2. Goods trade data for Q4 2025-Q1 2026 are based on State Customs Service data, in the absence of official State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) data, per NBU's own note. CONTACT INFORMATION Illia Kyselov, PhD in Law Associate Professor, Department of Law, Bohdan Khmelnytsky Melitopol State Pedagogical University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine CMSA (R), FPWMP (R), and BIDA (R) (Corporate Finance Institute) Email: illiakyselov86@gmail.com The author is open to collaboration on Scopus-indexed publications and further research using Ukrainian economic and financial statistics. Inquiries regarding this dataset, potential co-authorship, or data requests are welcome.