Beyond Carbon: A Policy-Driven Indicator Framework for Emerging Pollutant Risk Assessment in Chinese Freshwater Ecosystems
Description
Research hypothesis The study tests whether a multi-metric, desk-based indicator framework can differentiate PFAS and microplastic pollution risk across contrasting Chinese watersheds, identify industrial and urban pressure pathways (including waste incineration and urban runoff), and expose monitoring gaps, using only publicly available data. Data and method The emerging pollutant risk indicator (EPRI) operationalises the pressure–state–response (PSR) model with 12 indicators. Pressure (P1–P4) covers industrial PFAS discharge, waste incineration input, urban microplastic runoff and agricultural film loss; state (S1–S5) covers PFAS and microplastics in water, sediment and fish plasma, plus biomarker response; response (R1–R3) covers monitoring coverage, treatment upgrades and remediation actions. Data came from peer-reviewed literature (2020–2026), provincial monitoring reports and public registries, harmonised via random-effects meta-analysis and multiple imputation. Indicators were scored 0–1 against published benchmarks (1 = worst condition) and weighted by analytic hierarchy process: pressure 0.35, state 0.45, response 0.20. Three watersheds were tested: Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and North China Plain (NCP). What the data show Risk differed significantly (ANOVA F(2,57)=34.6, p<0.001; all Tukey pairs p<0.01). Mean EPRI scores were YRD 0.71 (95% CI 0.65–0.77), PRD 0.59 (0.52–0.66) and NCP 0.32 (0.27–0.37), placing YRD and PRD on the watch list and NCP in routine monitoring. YRD had the highest PFAS (187 ng/L water; 28.4 µg/kg sediment); PRD had the highest microplastics (8,200 particles/m³; 4,100 particles/kg). Priority-intervention subcatchments (EPRI >0.75) covered only 16% of the studied area yet accounted for 43% of reported PFAS and 51% of microplastics. Waste incineration contributed 28–34% of PFAS pressure in YRD and PRD, while agricultural film contributed 38% of microplastic pressure in NCP. Only 38% of high-risk zones had monitoring; coverage fell as risk rose (r=−0.67, p<0.01). Sensitivity analysis showed maximum EPRI change of 0.03. Interpretation and use The framework discriminates risk, confirms known hotspots, and reveals incineration leachate as an under-recognised PFAS pathway. Provincial agencies can use EPRI scores to prioritise inspections, target new monitoring in uncovered high-risk subcatchments, track policy effectiveness biennially, and compare jurisdictions. It is transparent, replicable and needs no new field data, though thresholds (>0.75 priority; 0.40–0.75 watch list; <0.40 routine) should be refined with stakeholders. Limitations include heterogeneous literature methods, sparse western-China data and no economic or social indicators.