Data and replication code for: Green Growth or Mathematical Illusion? Evidence of Persistent Unitary GDP-CO2 Elasticity
Description
Annual global panel, 1965–2025 (61 observations), assembled for the study of the time-varying relationship between world GDP and CO2 emissions. All series are global aggregates. Variables: (1) Per capita CO2 emissions from energy (metric tons/person/year), computed from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy; (2) Per capita GDP (constant 2015 USD), World Bank World Development Indicators; (3) Real fossil energy price index (2010 = 100), a weighted composite of crude oil, natural gas and coal prices deflated by the manufactures unit value index, World Bank Commodity Markets ("Pink Sheet"); (4) Renewable/fossil ratio, computed as renewable energy over total energy supply, Energy Institute; (5) Energy intensity (MJ per USD of GDP), derived from total energy supply and GDP; (6) Carbon intensity of energy supply (tCO2 per unit of energy), derived; (7) Urbanization rate (% of population in urban areas), World Bank; (8) OECD and non-OECD bloc aggregates of the above, for disaggregated estimation; (9) Baumeister–Hamilton (2019) structural oil-market shocks (global economic activity, oil supply, inventory demand), aggregated from monthly posterior medians to annual sums, used as external instruments over 1976–2025. Variables enter the econometric models as first differences of logs, except urbanization (percentage-point changes).