Predicting global habitat suitability and invasion risks of the red gum lerp psyllid Glycaspis brimblecombei under current and future climates

Description

The red gum lerp psyllid Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore is an invasive pest that causes significant damage to Eucalyptus trees globally. Because the species is highly host-specific and develops exclusively on Eucalyptus spp., its establishment outside its native range depends not only on climatic suitability but also on host availability. However, spatially explicit habitat suitability models that can guide targeted surveillance and monitoring remain limited. In this study, the global potential distribution of G. brimblecombei was estimated using the MaxEnt model. Model performance was robust (AUC = 0.880; TSS = 0.634; CBI = 0.803), indicating strong discriminatory capacity and balanced predictive accuracy. Annual mean temperature (Bio01) was the most influential predictor, contributing approximately 35% to model performance, followed by annual temperature range (Bio07; ~20%). Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas are concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions, including parts of South America, Africa, and Oceania, with additional suitable areas predicted in Europe, North America, and Asia. Future projections for 2041–2060 under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate moderate contractions in highly suitable habitats, although core distribution regions are expected to persist. These findings provide spatially explicit insights to support surveillance and management of G. brimblecombei under ongoing climate change. However, the predicted suitable areas represent climatic suitability and should be interpreted in conjunction with the distribution of Eucalyptus plantations and ornamental plantings, as host availability remains a prerequisite for species establishment.

Institutions

• Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri

  Minas Gerais, Diamantina
• Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation

  Federal District, Brasília
• Florida A&M University - Florida State University College of Engineering

  Florida, Tallahassee
• Washington State University

  Washington, Pullman
• University of Environment and Sustainable Development

  Eastern, Somanya

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