Datas Salamander Distribution Shifts and Extinction Risks
Description
Salamanders are bioindicators of ecosystem health, yet they face significant threats from climate change. In Chiapas, 26 salamander species occur, 23% of which are endemic. This study highlights the Climate Niche Tracking Theory, which states that species relocate to remain within habitats as environmental conditions change. It tests the Conservation Mismatch Hypothesis, which claims that static protected natural areas become less effective as species distributions shift under climate change. We evaluated distribution changes under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2060-2100) and assessed protected area effectiveness. Using Maxent models for 17 species we calculated changes in area and altitudinal range, assessed the species protection index, and identified hotspots of species richness and climate refuges. Results show that 69% of species are highly vulnerable to climate change, compared with 53% under IUCN and NOM-059. A significant reduction in distribution area was found overall. Deforestation poses a threat comparable to SSP5-8.5 by 2100. Low and mid-altitude species are moving to higher elevations, while summit species above 2000 meters face summit extinction, with altitudinal ranges decreasing from 4% to 21%. By 2100, a pessimistic scenario predicts the loss of five species. Protected natural areas currently cover only 30% of the potential range needed for conservation, and this is projected to decline to 16.4% by 2100, indicating a conservation gap. Furthermore, 68.4% of identified climate refuges, spanning 1,312.89 km², are outside protected natural areas. Action is required to expand protections. It is essential to establish climate corridors to promote migration and safeguard refuges.
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Institutions
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico City, Mexico City