Food system transformation and NCD outcomes in Central Asia: An exploratory assessment of dietary exposure and health risks
Description
This paper examines the relationships between food system indicators, body weight outcomes, metabolic risks, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality across four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Using a structured transmission pathway from dietary exposure to intermediate nutrition outcomes and health risks, the analysis applies a correlation-based approach to assess whether observed patterns are consistent with the nutrition transition framework. Over the past two decades, countries in the region have undergone a gradual transformation of their food systems. Economic growth, urbanization, and the expansion of food supply chains have increased the availability of energy-dense foods, including products high in sugars and fats. At the same time, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become the dominant source of mortality, accounting for the majority of deaths. This pattern is consistent with the global nutrition transition framework, under which economic development and urbanization are associated with shifts toward calorie-dense and processed diets, contributing to rising levels of overweight, obesity, and diet-related NCDs (Popkin and Ng, 2022; Popkin, Adair, and Ng, 2012). The results indicate that fat supply is more strongly and immediately associated with body weight outcomes than sugar supply, whose effects emerge with a time lag. Both overweight and obesity exhibit a high degree of alignment with metabolic risks, particularly diabetes, reflecting shared upward trends. At the same time, NCD mortality has declined even as risk factors have risen, a divergence most plausibly attributed to improvements in healthcare systems rather than to a reduction in underlying risk exposure. The findings highlight the importance of dietary composition, temporal dynamics, and system-level factors in shaping health outcomes in Central Asia.