TECHNO-ECONOMIC, NET-EMISSIONS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF FLARE-GAS-to-POWER OPTIONS (Physical or Compresses Natural Gas Virtual Pipelines) IN NIGERIA: Data
Description
Research Hypothesis and Project Framing The central hypothesis of this study states that modular virtual pipeline trucking networks (Compressed Natural Gas — CNG) deliver superior risk-adjusted financial returns and robust capital insulation compared to traditional physical pipelines when monetizing stranded associated flare gas for embedded power generation in Nigeria. It is further hypothesized that while scaling up modular fleet sizes maximizes commercial profitability, it introduces a distinct logistical combustion overhead that compromises the project’s net environmental footprint, revealing a sharp trade-off between economic optimization and carbon abatement efficiency. To test this, the dataset evaluates three core active infrastructure pathways against a business-as-usual waste baseline across a 20-year timeline, utilizing a deterministic discounted cash flow (DCF) model integrated with a stochastic 10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation to stress-test project variables. Data Gathering Methodology and Parameter Grounding The data used to build this financial model was meticulously gathered from verified industrial and regulatory benchmarks to ensure high academic authority and accuracy. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) were compiled at an AACE Class 3 level. Power plant investment metrics were anchored to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) AEO2025 guidelines at $1,032/kW in 2023 base dollars for a natural gas combined-cycle facility. Baseline feedstock costs were modeled at a heavily discounted waste rate of $1/MMBtu, while downstream revenues were driven by a premium bilateral electricity tariff of $70/MWh with a 3% annual escalation, paired with secondary revenue from international carbon credits valued at $10/tonne based on MSCI carbon market indicators. Notable Findings and Trend Analysis The consolidated empirical data reveals that the 60-Truck Virtual Pipeline completely dominates the economic spectrum, generating the highest deterministic base case NPV of $348,152,854 and a superior Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 27.12%. This outpaces the Physical Pipeline’s base case NPV of $310,680,209 and the defensive 10-Truck Virtual Pipeline fleet’s NPV of $55,252,688. Under stochastic conditions across 10,000 trials, the 60-truck configuration maintains the lead, securing a highly resilient 10% percentile floor (P10) of $202,686,841 and an optimistic 90% percentile ceiling (P90) of $484,647,830. Environmentally, however, a critical project paradox emerges: the permanent Physical Pipeline achieves the highest carbon reduction efficiency at 44.20% (14.54M tCO₂e avoided), slightly outperforming the 60-truck 43.9%. due to the incremental fuel combustion emissions generated by the diesel trucking logistics.
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Institutions
- Nile University of NigeriaFCT, Abuja